Let's Make a Deal

Here’s a famous problem relating to probability. It’s called the Monty Hall Problem.

Interesting notion for decision making. The answer may surprise you. Watch the first minute and think about the different outcomes that can happen. What did you originally think about? Does the solution make sense?

Here’s a clip from the T.V. show Numb3rs that explains it in a similar way.

Here’s a simulation of the game. Try it a few times. Your moves are recorded and your winning percentage is calculated.

http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/SimpleMontyHall/

Try 10 simulations. What’s your experimental probability for switching/staying? If you played this game 1000 times, what could you expect your probabilities to be close to?